Jack Jianqing Lu is the Founding Partner & Chief Economist of Intellectual Property Market Advisory Partners, LLC. Jack specializes in economic study, financial analysis, assets valuation, and strategic advisory for IP transactions & litigation, and for IP-intensive corporate transactions & disputes in financing, M&A, equity investment, and distressed assets investment. He serves as the Senior VP for Economic Analysis & Survey of the Licensing Executives Society (LES USA Canada).
Jack’s work has been published by the Council on Foreign Relations, Cambridge University Press, Business Economics, IAM Magazine, Licensing Economics Review, and Les Nouvelles, the Journal of LES International, and IPWatchdog. He co-authored the High Tech Royalty Survey Reports for three consecutive Surveys in 2011(the inaugural), 2014 and 2017, penning the chapters on economic and financial analysis.
Jack holds a B.E. in electrical engineering and M.Ph. in technology management. Jack studied economic policy and received his PhD from the University of Texas at Austin. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) charter holder and a member of the CFA Institute, the National Association for Business Economics, and the LES USA Canada.
On June 7, 2021, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) gave the green light to Aducanumab, a drug developed by Biogen to treat early stage Alzheimer’s, despite the controversies surrounding its efficacy. Biogen stock price increased 38.3% on the day, adding $16.5 billion to the company’s market value. The news rippled across the pharmaceutical industry and lifted stock prices of most Alzheimer’s drug developers. As an example, Eli Lilly stock price jumped 10.2% on June 7, or a hike of $18.6 billion in market cap, because the company also has a similar drug candidate. Subsequently, as the controversies over the Aducanumab approval deepened, Biogen had lost $7 billion in market value by September 9. With all of these multi-billion-dollar numbers, one can’t help but wonder: how much is an Alzheimer’s drug worth? This article tries to assess the market value of an Alzheimer’s drug. It first estimates the implied values of Alzheimer’s drugs by looking into stock market reactions to major events associated with Biogen’s Aducanumab and Eli Lilly’s Donanemab. As a sanity check to the values derived from the stock market, a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is conducted to evaluate whether the stock market valuations are rational.
The Licensing Executives Society (LES) 2017 High Tech Deal Term & Royalty Rate Survey is a milestone event for at least three reasons. First, it was the third survey since the inaugural survey in 2011, and the three surveys fully covered the time period of a decade—from 2008 to 2017. Second, the 2017 Survey marked the fifth anniversary of Inter Partes Review (IPR) procedure and the third anniversary of the Supreme Court’s ruling in Alice v. CLS Bank. Third, at the time of the Survey, a new USPTO Director was nominated by the Trump Administration, bringing a fresh glut of uncertainties, anxieties, and hopes to the already jittery IP market.
Alice certainly has dealt a huge blow to patent market, reversing the growth momentum of most market players, big or small. However, the decline in patent sales revenue has significantly decelerated to 5% in 2015, based on the estimated data. Not all segments of IP industry have weathered the Alice storm equally well. Most NPEs have seen their share prices plunging half to nearly 100%. There will be more restructuring and further consolidation in NPE business in 2016.
The market price plummeted in the second half of 2011, and set off the downward spiral that stormed through the second half of 2013 when the market price reached the record low. There had been no discernible macroeconomic factors to justify the drastic decline in market price during the two years leading up to the end of 2013. As a result, the industry-specific factors might have been the culprit, among which the most prominent is the enacting of America Invents Act (AIA) in September 2011, as demonstrated by the econometric analysis above.